If you believe some scientists, then it would seem that the world as we know it will shortly be devastated by the effects of global warming. However, with the summer that has just been suffered in Edmonton, one might argue that global warming should hurry up already so that there might be some sun and heat. (Anyone about to suffer an Edmonton winter would undoubtedly concur.)
To reconcile the doomsayers' predictions of impending calamity with the seemingly colder reality, I have a theory. Having an infinitesimal knowledge of the subject, I anticipate that a gentle reader with a vaster wisdom might be able to correct my misguided and unscientific hypothesis. Until then, my postulations:
1) If the trend of increasing global temperatures do occur, resulting in melting ice caps, then there would be more water, higher water levels, and in general a greater surface area that is filled with water.
2) My grade 4 science classes taught me that water evaporates; I later learned that higher temperatures or higher surface areas would increase the rate of evaporation, therefore, if 1) is correct, there should be higher rates of evaporation.
3) Water in its different forms is part of a greater water cycle: evaporation-condensation-precipitation. If 2) is true, then there would be more water going through the cycle. If so, this would explain the increase in precipitation in Edmonton this summer.
4) If 3) is true and there is an increase in precipitation, this precipitation is likely to cool down the global temperatures, temporarily suspending the trend of global warming.
5) Or not.
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1 comment:
1. I don't think our heavier precipitation can be ascribed to an increase in the surface area of water on earth. The surface area of the world's oceans has increased minimally in the past few decades (i.e. almost certainly <1%). Our precipitation was much more than minimially larger.
Weather is determined by many, many, many factors. The small amount of global warming so far, isn't causing major changes in weather like this year's rain.
2. If more water does evaporate (and I believe this deduction is correct), then for that water to condense into rain, more heat will need to be absorbed by the atmosphere (unlikely since the air will be warmer with global warming) or a greater percetage of heat will need to be radiated out of the planet (unlikely since radiation travels in all directions so proportionally more radiation will also end up heating the atmosphere, the earth, and the water).
Sadly, I don't think global warming would self-correct.
Nice try though.
- Mustafa Hirji
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